How to predict the success of disruptive innovations? The case of the electric vehicle Demand forecasting for disruptive innovations is a major challenge for professionals and academics. This article addresses the issue by building an original spatial model, USIDDI (User-centric SImulation for the Deployment of Disruptive Innovations) on the analysis of individuals’ compatibility with the innovation. We empirically test the model on the electric vehicle market and emphasize the nature of the recommendations that should be made to companies and governments to accelerate the scaling-up of disruptive innovations. Mots-clés
