Do commodity price volatilities impact currency misalignments in commodity-exporting countries?
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between misalignments of real effective exchange rates and real commodity price volatilities in a sample of 46 commodity-exporting countries by considering financial development as the transition variable. We first estimate currency misalignments as deviations of the observed real effective exchange rates from their equilibrium values estimated using the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. Then, we rely on panel data and a smooth-transition regression model to estimate commodity price volatilities' non-linear impacts on currency misalignments. Our results indicate that the estimated coefficients are highly significant, and demonstrate that real commodity prices' volatility has a non-linear impact on currency misalignments depending on the country's degree of financial development.
Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries
The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature by exploring the relationship between the real commodity price volatilities and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of commodity-exporting countries, taking into account the transition variable of financial market integration. To this end, we consider a sample of 42 commodity-exporting countries subdivided into 4 panels: food and beverages, energy, metals, and raw materials. Our results highlight that the relationship between real commodity price volatility and REER is non-linear and depends on the degree of financialization of the commodity market. Specifically, when a country is poorly integrated financially, the volatility of the real commodity price has a strong and negative impact on the variation in REER. However, for periods when a country is better integrated financially, we observe a decrease in the impact of real commodity price volatility on REER, especially for the two panels of food and beverages as well as energy. Our findings also highlight the growth of financialization of commodities post-2000, particularly in the case of the energy sector.