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- PublicationDo commodity price volatilities impact currency misalignments in commodity-exporting countries?(2020)
; 155 110 - PublicationDo sovereign wealth funds dampen the effect of oil market volatility on gross domestic product growth?(2022)
; Trabelsi, AhlemThis paper examines the effect of oil price volatility on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in some oil-exporting countries. The analysis becomes more pertinent when we consider the role of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as a driver to counter the exhaustibility of revenue by transforming nonrenewable resources into sustainable income. The main contribution made by this paper is our assessment of the role of SWF asset growth in dampening the effect of oil market volatility on GDP growth. To test this effect, we rely on a panel smooth transition regression model which is useful for describing heterogeneous panels, with regression coefficients that fluctuate between a limited number of “extreme regimes” depending on the SWF assets’ size. Our findings demonstrate that this effect is nonlinear and depends on the threshold level of SWF asset growth. The estimated coefficient is negative in the first regime and becomes positive beyond the threshold value (ie, 19%) in the second regime. We also test a second specification of the model by considering the effect of the volatility of per capita oil export revenue on GDP growth and show that SWF asset growth plays a significant role in dampening the effect of oil market volatility on GDP growth, mainly in the second regime when SWF asset growth reaches a high growth level.31 - PublicationDouble Impact: A Macroeconomic Study of the Crossed Influences Between Climate Change and Business Tourism(2023)International tourism is a main sector of economy that witnesses continuous and tremendous growth in developed and developing countries and expresses destabilization by several factors including climate change. Being considered as a sensitive sector to climate, tourism shows, through several criteria such as number of arrivals and receipts, an influence by environmental and socioeconomic modifications. This article will outline the interrelationships between climate change phenomenon and the business component of the international tourism. Three focal elements that were developed through literature on the effects of climate change for tourism will be critically reviewed: climate change and temporal shifts in tourism demand, climate-inducted change and destination competitiveness within the major market segment of business tourism, and future tourist mobility. The review will develop the differential weakness of tourism destinations and the consequence in competitiveness that will transform some international markets. This will be relevant to explain why destinations will need to adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate change. Despite several elements illustrating progress in the past years, an important gap of knowledge in each of the major impact areas needs to be looked into in order to indicate to the concerned tourist the necessity for a well preparation toward challenges of climate change.
25 - PublicationEffects of financial turmoil on financial integration and risk premia in emerging marketsThe aim of this article is to analyze how financial crises affect the dynamics of international financial integration and of the risk premia in emerging markets. Accordingly, we estimate a variant of the International Asset Pricing Model developed by Carrieri et al. (2007), allowing for time-varying stock market integration, in which we include the foreign currency risk. Our sample consists of monthly data for 12 emerging stock markets over the period 1988M3-2015M3. We find that while the financial integration of emerging stock markets has registered short-term reversals episodes in countries that have been exposed to national or/and regional financial crises, it has decreased in most of the emerging countries of our sample since the global crisis. Moreover, the upward trend in financial integration has not reduced the local market risk premium component as much as could be expected. However, the recent global crisis has induced a reassessment of the world market risk premium for all emerging countries, highlighting the global nature of the crisis. © 2016 Elsevier B.V..
Scopus© Citations 11 104 66 - PublicationNon-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries(2019)
; Scopus© Citations 25 852 - PublicationRegional integration of the East Asian stock markets: An empirical assessmentThe aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of regional financial integration in East Asia over the 1990:01-2012:08 period. To this end, we use the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to assess the evolution of financial market integration through time and evaluate their risk premia. We also construct an Asian currency basket in order to obtain a reference currency in this area. Our empirical analysis is based on the multivariate GARCH-DCC approach with time-varying correlations. Our results show that the East Asian stock markets were partially segmented (except for Japan) within their region until approximately 2008. However, the last years are characterized by an upward trend in the regional integration of stock markets. Our findings also show that the risk premium related to regional stock markets is significant for all countries. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
Scopus© Citations 40 581 130 - PublicationThe Impact of Labor Nationalization Policies on Female Participation Rates in the Arab GulfBased on interviews with policymakers in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, this chapter finds that although existing labor nationalization policies have led to small increases in female participation rates, these countries will need to undertake more systemic socioeconomic reform if they are to better capitalize on the ‘valuable human resource asset’ that women are said to constitute. Compared with male nationals, female nationals in the Arabian Gulf achieve higher grades in education and obtain considerably more vocationally oriented tertiary-level qualifications. But cultural attitudes, alongside structural issues, continue to bar their employment in the private sector. The issue is of contemporary importance, as the key domestic policy challenge faced by the region is said to be growing levels of national unemployment. The challenge is compounded by the Gulf's pyramid-style demographic profile and the fact that the respective public sectors, which have been the de facto employer to date, can no longer accommodate most of the people now seeking to join the workforce. The consensus view among interviewees is that labor nationalization policy will need to feature strategies to normalize the role of women nationals pursuing a private-sector career.
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